Review of Braves trade options for shortstop

Athleticism‘s Ken Rosenthal wrote earlier this week about what he’s been hearing so far in the offseason ($), and claimed the Braves were unlikely to sign any of the top shortstops in the free agents if they don’t reach a deal with Dansby Swanson. If that is indeed the case, and it is Swanson-or-bust in free agency, it behooves us to look at what shortstop options might be available in the commercial market.

willy adames

In the same article, Rosenthal mentions that he doesn’t think the Brewers are likely to trade Adames, but the Brewers seem to be open to selling some of their players, so it’s at least worth taking a look at. a look.

Adames was one of the best shortstops in the game in 2022, albeit one step below superstar level. He’s been a solid above average bat over the past three seasons (109-126 wRC+) with good power. Defense is a bit of a question for Adames, as he was fantastic in 2022 and 2019 (94th and 97th percentiles in the OAA), but poor to horrible in 2018, 2020 and 2021 (7th, 30th and 7th percentiles in the OAA, respectively).

If you roughly assume a 115 wRC+, Adames can be anything from a player at around 3 wins to a player at 4.5-5 wins, depending on the defense. That’s a pretty wide range, which speaks to the big difference in defensive value he’s shown from year to year, but he’s a valuable player anyway. With two years of arbitration remaining, an Adames trade would be costly, and it’s worth wondering if the Braves have the prospect pool to even trade for Adames without diving into the major league squad.

Ha Seong Kim

Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

Kim is probably the most realistic option on this list, but her availability is a big question. The Padres have Fernando Tatis Jr. returning, but he’s at risk of injury and has already been removed from shortstop, so who knows what AJ Preller and company have in mind for the shortstop position- short. That being said, Preller likes to make trades and if they expect Tatis to come back short, Kim might be available.

After a tough first season at the plate, Kim had a solidly average season offensively in nearly 600 plate appearances. He’s also improved slightly over the season, so he might have a bit more attacking advantage in him. Attack is not Kim’s business card.

Kim is a legitimate big defender, with an 83rd percentile OAA in 2021 on a smaller sample and a 95th percentile OAA in 2022 on a much larger sample. While Kim may not exude superstar potential at home plate, great defense with a mid-to-top offense is a valuable combination, especially with good base-to-top running. Kim is essentially a slightly better version of Dansby Swanson’s pre-2022 results (but not Swanson’s entries). He’s under the team’s control for two more seasons at a very reasonable, guaranteed price of $7 million per season, with a mutual option for an additional year after that. It wouldn’t be a cheap trade, but it wouldn’t plunder the farm either, and trades with the Padres have often been anything but simple on the basis of value anyway.

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

This is an extremely unlikely option in my opinion, as Jazz is a very good young player playing for a division rival, but the Marlins have never seemed particularly fond of Jazz (although Ronald Acuña Jr. is quite a fan), so who knows. Don Mattingly, who faced Chisholm at the clubhouse, also left. Chisholm still has four attractive years in team control, so even if he is available, it would cost a pretty penny. I’ve also always wanted a player named Jazz on the Braves, because that’s a pretty awesome name.

Chisholm is a defensive stretch to work at shortstop, but he’s been rated as a good shortstop as a prospect, so it’s possible he’s still a good defensive shortstop in there. He was very bad as a shortstop in 2021, but he was very good at second base, so you can also consider putting him at second and moving Ozzie Albies to shortstop. It’s worth mentioning that he was pretty error-prone defensively in 2021 and cleaned up some of them in 2022, so while errors are a very flawed defensive metric, it’s possible he could be better than his defensive sample. of 2021 indicated at shortstop, which has been an error-riddled season for Chisholm. Overall, Chisholm is probably a poor defensive shortstop from what we know right now, but he’s nowhere near the sample for us to be confident in that assessment.

Defensive issues aside, Chisholm has some serious offensive assets. He was a highly rated prospect for a reason and showed it at the start of the 2022 season, posting a 139 wRC+ (which was inflated by an xwOBA outperformance) before he suffered an injury. Chisholm has improved as a hitter in each of his first three major league seasons and has a ton of talent, including lightning-fast speed and real power. If the Marlins are willing to listen at a reasonable price (which is a big if), Chisholm could be worth the defensive and injury-related risks. However, it’s unclear what the Braves can even expect to get Chisholm from a division rival.

Amed Rosario

If the Braves don’t feel Vaughn Grissom is ready and aren’t comfortable with the floor set by Orlando Arcia, Amed Rosario could be an interim option. Once one of baseball’s hottest prospects, Rosario never quite lived up to that billing, but was a useful, if unspectacular, shortstop. Rosario lays down solid ground at the offensive position and is a good base runner, despite being a very poor defensive shortstop. With only his final year of officiating before he hits free agency, it wouldn’t be an expensive trade, although Elvis Andrus would be a free agent option that could serve as a similar stopgap without the cost of perspective.

A funny thing about Rosario is that the Foggernaut projection system usually heavily discounts players like Dansby Swanson coming out of elite defensive seasons. But, in Rosario’s case, Foggernaut thinks Rosario is going to be better than ever, as he heavily regresses his still mediocre defense.